SpaceX launches, August 2026 [ resolved 2026-09-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 100.0% | $4.4K | $18K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-10 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 100.0% | $464 | $3.6K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-11 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 100.0% | $1.5K | $16K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-12 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $1.7K | $9.5K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-13 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $494 | $2.6K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-14 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $28 | $714 | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-15 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $8 | $323 | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-16 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $1 | $53 | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-17 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $210 | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-18 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | SpaceX | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "SpaceX" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
SpaceX committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 100% |
| YES | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 100% |
| YES | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 100% |
| NO | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- SpaceX August launch count trades near certainty on Kalshi 99% · $58K 24h
- Kalshi prices the August launch target at 99%, near-certain resolution in the affirmative.
- 24h volume of $57.5K is 32% of all-time, with the contract expiring today, August 31.
- Same-day resolution is pulling in settlement traders locking in the final tick.
- Resolves tonight based on confirmed SpaceX launch count for August 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexcount-26aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexcount-26aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexcount-26aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-44DGF8Z1F9",
"slug": "kxspacexcount-26aug",
"question": "SpaceX launches, August 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"space-launches",
"quantity-forecast",
"august-2026",
"commercial-spaceflight"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51715,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}