Will Mike Johnson be out as Speaker of the House in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-11 ]
Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times" sources (1) · single authority
- The New York Times source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Johnson speaker exit in 2026 holds at low probability Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prices only 9% on Mike Johnson losing the Speaker role in 2026.
- Trump's speech upending House Republican plans is a real pressure point, but the market sees it as unlikely to cost Johnson the speakership.
- The low 9% is consistent with Johnson retaining Trump's backing; the lobbying effort itself signals a working relationship rather than a rupture.
- Resolves via The New York Times confirmation; a speakership vote or Johnson resignation before year-end would settle the Kalshi contract YES.
- Johnson Speaker removal in 2026 remains a fringe pricing call Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi prices Speaker Mike Johnson losing the speakership in 2026 at just 5%, despite reported Republican anxiety ahead of midterms.
- The low probability is consistent with a market that sees internal GOP frustration as insufficient to trigger a formal leadership challenge this cycle.
- Republican midterm anxiety tends to suppress, not accelerate, internal leadership battles as members avoid two-front fights.
- Resolves via The New York Times confirmation of Johnson's removal; the multi-deadline structure means the contract covers the full 2026 calendar year.
- Johnson Speaker removal risk stays muted despite GOP revolt Kalshi 12%
- Kalshi prediction market prices 12% on Speaker Mike Johnson being removed from his position.
- The House deadlock is consistent with elevated but not decisive removal risk, markets are not treating a holiday-week revolt as a tipping-point event.
- A prior precedent where Kevin McCarthy was removed after a similar series of revolts provides the real-world reference that Kalshi bettors appear to be discounting.
- Resolves via New York Times confirmation of Johnson's removal as Speaker; the trigger is removal, not a failed procedural vote.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsothleave-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsothleave-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsothleave-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
"slug": "kxsothleave-26",
"question": "Will Mike Johnson be out as Speaker of the House in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-speaker",
"mike-johnson",
"political-leadership",
"congressional-turnover",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6217,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}