Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determined before the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Mizusawa | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $12K | $38K | A | KXSENATEVAR-…MIZ | ||
| Kim Farington | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | $55 | $486 | A | KXSENATEVAR-…FAR | ||
| David Williams | 2026-11-03 | 2.9% | $10 | $151 | A | KXSENATEVAR-…WIL | ||
| Jason Miyares | 2026-11-03 | 2.1% | — | $25 | A | KXSENATEVAR-…MIY | ||
| Bryce Reeves | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $115 | A | KXSENATEVAR-…REE | ||
| Chuck Smith | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXSENATEVAR-…SMI | ||
| Winsome Earle-Sears | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $3 | A | KXSENATEVAR-26-WES | ||
| Aldous Mina | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATEVAR-…MIN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Bryce Reeves wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Mizusawa locks in as Virginia GOP Senate pick at 94% 94% · $11K 24h
- At 94%, Kalshi treats Mizusawa's Republican Senate nomination in Virginia as effectively decided.
- 24h volume of $10.8K is 33% of all-time, a sharp single-session share for a near-resolved contract.
- Fresh volume at this price level suggests late entrants are closing out opposing positions rather than opening new ones.
- Resolves on the certified 2026 Virginia Republican Senate primary result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatevar-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatevar-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatevar-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
"slug": "kxsenatevar-26",
"question": "Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determined before the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"virginia-senate",
"republican-nominee",
"2026-election",
"us-politics",
"primary-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39282,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}