Will the Louisiana Republican Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-11 ]
Will Eric Skrmetta be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Louisiana?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Letlow | 2026-06-28 | 100.0% | $5.8K | $330K | A | KXSENATELAR-…LET | ||
| John Fleming | 2026-06-28 | 0.0% | $56 | $11K | A | KXSENATELAR-…LEM | ||
| Eric Skrmetta | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATELAR-…SKR | ||
| Julie Emerson | 2026-11-03 | 0.8% | — | $28 | A | KXSENATELAR-…EME | ||
| Bill Cassidy | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $170 | A | KXSENATELAR-…CAS | ||
| Blake Miguez | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $7 | A | KXSENATELAR-…MIG | ||
| Sammy Wyatt | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXSENATELAR-…WYA | ||
| Kathy Seiden | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATELAR-…SEI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Bill Cassidy wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Louisiana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
- Democratic Party venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will John Fleming be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Louisiana? | kalshi | 2026-06-28 | 0% |
| YES | Will Julia Letlow be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Louisiana? | kalshi | 2026-06-28 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatelar-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatelar-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatelar-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9Y8RWQVC4",
"slug": "kxsenatelar-26",
"question": "Will the Louisiana Republican Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"louisiana-senate",
"republican-primary",
"2026-election",
"us-politics",
"nominee-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 341575,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}