Will there be a Louisiana Senate winner by January 4, 2027? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Louisiana?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Louisiana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Republicans win the Senate race in Louisiana? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Louisiana Senate race heavily backed for Republicans at 87% 87% · $142K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Louisiana Senate win at 87%, a near-lock but with residual uncertainty.
- 53% of all-time volume arrived today as Election Night flow concentrates into settled races.
- At 87%, the market is pricing a strong but not certain outcome, leaving room for a surprise.
- Resolves on certified Louisiana Senate results.
- Louisiana GOP Senate seat trades as a near-sure thing 88% · $61K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 88% in Louisiana, a heavy favorite reflecting the state's deep-red partisan lean.
- 24h volume of $61K is 40% of all-time contract flow, the largest single-day share of any session to date.
- A 40% all-time share in one day implies a sudden catalyst, likely spillover attention from broader Senate map repricing.
- Resolves on the 2026 Louisiana Senate race result.
- Republicans are heavy favorites in the Louisiana Senate race 85% · $36K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 85% in Louisiana's Senate race, a strong favorite consistent with the state's partisan profile.
- $35.6K in 24h is 29% of all-time volume, a pre-election positioning bump on a largely settled race.
- Volume arriving near election day on an 85% contract suggests participants are closing positions or locking in cheap exposure.
- Resolves on Louisiana Senate election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatela-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatela-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatela-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-862GRMT4M0",
"slug": "kxsenatela-26nov",
"question": "Will there be a Louisiana Senate winner by January 4, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"louisiana-senate",
"us-politics",
"election-2026",
"senate-race",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7976,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}