Will the Florida Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Vindman | 2026-08-19 | 0.0% | $244 | $13K | A | KXSENATEFLD-…VIN | ||
| Angie Nixon | 2026-11-03 | 12.0% | $187 | $1.7K | A | KXSENATEFLD-…NIX | ||
| Jared Moskowitz | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | — | $66 | A | KXSENATEFLD-26-JM | ||
| Charlie Crist | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2 | A | KXSENATEFLD-26-CC | ||
| Josh Weil | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $6 | A | KXSENATEFLD-…WEI | ||
| Joey Atkins | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATEFLD-…ATK | ||
| Jennifer Jenkins | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATEFLD-…JEN | ||
| Hector Mujica | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATEFLD-…MUJ |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jared Moskowitz wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class III (special election) Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Vindman FL Senate Democratic nom holds firm at 91% 91% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices Vindman at 91%, strong favorite for the Democratic Senate nomination in Florida.
- 36% of all-time volume in 24h ($17.9K), proportionally the largest daily session this contract has seen.
- Surge likely driven by the same Florida primary event catalyzing volume across all FL contracts today.
- Resolves on Florida Democratic Party's certified Senate nominee.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatefld-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatefld-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatefld-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M02ZJWQWV9",
"slug": "kxsenatefld-26",
"question": "Will the Florida Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"2026-election",
"senate-nominee",
"democratic-primary",
"us-senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14840,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}