Will the Supreme Court of the United States uphold the federal ban on firearm ownership for marijuana users? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (59D) ]

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v. Hemani

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v.…	2026-08-01	13.0%		$19	$8.2K		A	`KXSCOTUSMARI…GUN`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Supreme Court	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the Supreme Court, in United States v. Hemani, rules that the federal government may continue to bar marijuana users from buying or possessing firearms under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3), then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the Fifth Circuit’s decision invalidating § 922(g)(3) as applied to marijuana users, and upholds the federal prohibition on firearm possession by an “unlawful user” of a controlled substance, after Issuance and before August 1, 2026

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxscotusmarijuanagun/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxscotusmarijuanagun.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxscotusmarijuanagun")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JL2R17Q8K4",
  "slug": "kxscotusmarijuanagun",
  "question": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States uphold the federal ban on firearm ownership for marijuana users?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "scotus-decision",
    "gun-rights",
    "marijuana-policy",
    "federal-law",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 8225,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →