Will the CDU win the most seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state election? [ resolves 2027-09-06 (410D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 2027-09-06 | 98.0% | — | $6.5K | A | KXSAXONYANHA…AFD | ||
| BSW | 2027-09-06 | 5.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXSAXONYANHA…BSW | ||
| CDU | 2027-09-06 | 1.0% | — | $25 | A | KXSAXONYANHA…CDU | ||
| Die Linke | 2027-09-06 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXSAXONYANHA…LIN | ||
| SPD | 2027-09-06 | 1.0% | — | $278 | A | KXSAXONYANHA…SPD | ||
| Grüne | 2027-09-06 | 1.0% | — | $125 | A | KXSAXONYANHA…RUN | ||
| FDP | 2027-09-06 | 1.0% | — | $244 | A | KXSAXONYANHA…FDP |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If AfD wins the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsaxonyanhalt-26sep06/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsaxonyanhalt-26sep06 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsaxonyanhalt-26sep06") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VPDMQVS3R6",
"slug": "kxsaxonyanhalt-26sep06",
"question": "Will the CDU win the most seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"german-politics",
"state-election",
"saxony-anhalt",
"2027",
"parliamentary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8469,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}