Will a Russian sanctions bill become law? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will legislation that specifically targets Russia by (i) mandating or authorizing primary sanctions on Russia or key Russian sectors, (ii) imposing secondary penalties on foreign enablers or purchasers of Russian exports, and/or (iii) enabling the seizure and transfer of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine become law before Nov 1, 2026?
kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation that specifically targets Russia by (i) mandating or… | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $44 | $150 | B | KXSANCTIONRU…JUL | ||
| Will legislation that specifically targets Russia by (i) mandating or… | 2026-11-01 | 45.0% | $207 | $849 | B | KXSANCTIONRU…NOV | ||
| Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 57.0% | — | $9.4K | B | KXSANCTIONRU…-27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing:
(i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors
(ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion
(iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or
(iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will legislation that specifically targets Russia by (i) mandating or authorizing primary sanctions on Russia or key Russian sectors, (ii) imposing secondary penalties on foreign enablers or purchasers of Russian exports, and/or (iii) enabling the seizure and transfer of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine become law before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Russian sanctions bill becoming law holds near 84 percent Kalshi 84%
- The Kalshi contract on a Russian sanctions bill becoming law sits at 84%, resolves via the White House signing record.
- House passage is consistent with the elevated 84% pricing; the remaining gap to 100% likely reflects Senate procedural and timeline risk.
- The bill's House advancement does not guarantee Senate passage or a presidential signature before year-end, which the 16% residual captures.
- No companion market with a Senate-specific contract is available in the provided data; the Kalshi contract is the primary pricing signal.
- Russian sanctions bill becoming law stays favored at 76% Kalshi 76%
- The Kalshi contract prices a Russian sanctions bill becoming law at 76%, resolving via White House.
- Continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure keep political pressure elevated for legislative action, consistent with the high probability pricing.
- The Polymarket contract on the US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027 sits at just 3%, suggesting markets see the policy direction as sanctions and support, not accommodation.
- Resolution requires White House confirmation of enacted legislation; Senate dynamics (Story 16 notes far-right objections) remain the key procedural risk not yet moving this price below 76%.
- Russia sanctions bill becoming law holds near 50 percent Kalshi 58%
- Kalshi prices the Russia sanctions bill becoming law at 58%, a slim majority reflecting genuine uncertainty about White House sign-off.
- Senate passage is a necessary but insufficient step; the 58% price implies meaningful doubt that President Donald Trump will sign the bill into law.
- A Polymarket contract on Vladimir Putin no longer being president of Russia by end of 2026 sits at just 7%, suggesting markets see no near-term regime change regardless of sanctions.
- Resolution via the White House as named source; presidential signature or veto is the settlement trigger.
- Russian sanctions bill becoming law holds above 50 percent Kalshi 58%
- Kalshi prices 58% on a Russian sanctions bill becoming law.
- Bipartisan Senate momentum for the Graham-led act, timed alongside escalating Russia attacks on Kyiv, gives the bill a better-than-even shot per Kalshi.
- Secondary tariff implications for India and China add geopolitical complexity that could complicate White House sign-off, a key unresolved variable keeping the odds below 70%.
- Kalshi resolves via White House official confirmation of enactment; presidential signature is the final gate and the 42% NO side reflects that uncertainty.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsanctionrussia-26jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsanctionrussia-26jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsanctionrussia-26jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
"slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
"question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"russia-sanctions",
"us-legislation",
"2026-politics",
"foreign-policy",
"regulatory-enforcement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10424,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}