Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody by 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from custody before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from custody before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 9.6% | $0 | $6.2K | A | KXRELEASEMAX…-27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ghislaine Maxwell has been released from all forms of government custody and is free to move and act without government-imposed physical restrictions before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the person is released from government custody when they are no longer subject to physical detention or imprisonment imposed by any government authority. This includes release from prisons, jails, detention centers, immigration facilities, military detention, or any other form of government-imposed physical confinement at a government-run facility.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (23) · single authority
ABC venue-listed Axios venue-listed BBC venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed CBS venue-listed CNN venue-listed Fox News venue-listed legal representatives of person venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed NBC venue-listed person venue-listed Politico venue-listed relevant court system committed source relevant government authority holding person venue-listed relevant law enforcement agency venue-listed relevant prison system or detention facility venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Semafor venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Information venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxreleasemaxwell-26jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxreleasemaxwell-26jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxreleasemaxwell-26jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1VT8PTJS73",
"slug": "kxreleasemaxwell-26jan01",
"question": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody by 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"ghislaine-maxwell",
"criminal-justice",
"prison-release",
"us-federal-custody",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6218,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant court system",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "legal representatives of person",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "person",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant court system",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant government authority holding person",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant law enforcement agency",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant prison system or detention facility",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}