Which states will redistrict before the midterms? [ resolves 2026-11-01 (89D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 97.6% | $89 | $74K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-TX | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 96.6% | $10 | $195K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-CA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 96.5% | $226 | $26K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-OH | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 96.1% | — | $8.2K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-NC | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 95.4% | $163 | $123K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-LA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 95.0% | $175 | $67K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-FL | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 94.7% | $1 | $94K | C | KXREDISTRICT…MIS | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 94.0% | $158 | $4.3K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-TN | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 90.0% | $50 | $50K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-AL | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 8.6% | $0 | $7.7K | C | KXREDISTRICT…TAH | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 6.8% | — | $359 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-WA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 4.8% | — | $2.8K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-GA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 3.9% | — | $6.4K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-SC | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 3.5% | — | $4.0K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-NY | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 3.2% | — | $193 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-MN | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 3.1% | — | $2.6K | C | KXREDISTRICT…IND | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 3.1% | — | $892 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-IL | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.6% | — | $15K | C | KXREDISTRICT…VIR | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.3% | — | $527 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-WI | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.1% | — | $578 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-KS | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.1% | $1 | $1.6K | C | KXREDISTRICT…-MD | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.0% | $1 | $211 | C | KXREDISTRICT…EBR | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.0% | $0 | $335 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-MS | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.0% | — | $34 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-AZ | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 1.9% | — | $65 | C | KXREDISTRICT…-NJ |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | geography Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Indiana legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
These maps must be:
Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND
Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Indiana as of the Expiration Date; AND
In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption
For clarity:
Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date
Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO
Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO
If no new maps are adopted by Nov 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "geography Secretary of State" sources (6) · stated precedence rule
geography Secretary of State venue-listed any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U committed source legislature of geography venue-listed in hierarchical order venue-listed California legislature from rules text any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in California from rules text
recent wire items
- Redistricting odds sit at 25% as fresh money arrives 25% · $28K 24h
- Kalshi prices the redistricting basket at exactly 25%, placing it at the edge of a meaningful threshold.
- 45% of all-time volume came in over 24h as the 2026 election cycle enters its final pre-election window.
- Late-cycle redistricting efforts face steep legal and logistical hurdles; market reflects low but nonzero probability.
- Contract resolves based on verified court-approved or legislative redistricting actions before the 2026 election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxredistricting-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxredistricting-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxredistricting-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L35HG4NH71",
"slug": "kxredistricting-26",
"question": "Which states will redistrict before the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-redistricting",
"2026-midterms",
"state-legislatures",
"congressional-elections",
"electoral-geography"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 684956,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "geography Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "geography Secretary of State",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "legislature of geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "California legislature",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in California",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}