CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Which states will redistrict before the midterms? [ resolves 2026-11-01 (101D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 25 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 96.6%
$2.2K $195K
C KXREDISTRICT…-CA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 96.0%
$106 $95K
C KXREDISTRICT…MIS
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 96.0%
$240 $25K
C KXREDISTRICT…-OH
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 96.0%
$276 $123K
C KXREDISTRICT…-LA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 95.9%
$369 $72K
C KXREDISTRICT…-TX
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 95.9%
$420 $66K
C KXREDISTRICT…-FL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 93.7%
$123 $7.3K
C KXREDISTRICT…-NC
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 92.0%
$29 $3.3K
C KXREDISTRICT…-TN
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 88.0%
$44K
C KXREDISTRICT…-AL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 14.0%
$12K
C KXREDISTRICT…TAH
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 6.0%
$1.7K
C KXREDISTRICT…-IL
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 5.0%
$822
C KXREDISTRICT…-MS
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 4.9%
$292
C KXREDISTRICT…-MN
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 4.6%
$25 $2.6K
C KXREDISTRICT…-GA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 4.3%
$1.2K
C KXREDISTRICT…-KS
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 4.0%
$211
C KXREDISTRICT…-WA
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 4.0%
$1 $24K
C KXREDISTRICT…VIR
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 3.3%
$14 $3.8K
C KXREDISTRICT…-NY
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 2.8%
$4.5K
C KXREDISTRICT…-SC
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 2.0%
$1 $210
C KXREDISTRICT…EBR
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 2.0%
$64
C KXREDISTRICT…-NJ
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 2.0%
$458
C KXREDISTRICT…-WI
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 2.0%
$34
C KXREDISTRICT…-AZ
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 1.6%
$1.2K
C KXREDISTRICT…-MD
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections 2026-11-01 1.0%
$850
C KXREDISTRICT…IND
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff geography Secretary of State not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 25 markets · share this text
If the Indiana legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Indiana as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "geography Secretary of State"
sources (6) · stated precedence rule
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxredistricting-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxredistricting-26
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxredistricting-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L35HG4NH71",
  "slug": "kxredistricting-26",
  "question": "Which states will redistrict before the midterms?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-redistricting",
    "2026-midterms",
    "state-legislatures",
    "congressional-elections",
    "electoral-geography"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 25,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 683689,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 66,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "geography Secretary of State",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "geography Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "legislature of geography",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "in hierarchical order",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "California legislature",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in California",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →