Which states will complete redistricting before the 2022 midterm elections? [ resolves 2026-11-01 (151D) ]
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 97.2% | — | $72K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-TX | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 96.7% | — | $191K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-CA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 94.6% | — | $19K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-OH | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 91.3% | $253 | $110K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-LA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 90.0% | — | $5.7K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-NC | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 87.0% | $40 | $49K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-FL | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 87.0% | — | $2.5K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-TN | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 85.0% | $2.6K | $29K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-AL | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 76.0% | — | $69K | B | KXREDISTRICT…MIS | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 14.0% | — | $8.6K | B | KXREDISTRICT…TAH | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 9.8% | — | $981 | B | KXREDISTRICT…EBR | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 8.9% | $75 | $14K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-SC | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 8.5% | — | $252 | B | KXREDISTRICT…-NJ | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 8.0% | — | $5.7K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-MD | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 8.0% | — | $390 | B | KXREDISTRICT…-WA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 6.9% | — | $1.5K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-WI | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 6.6% | — | $1.8K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-KS | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 5.0% | $1 | $28K | B | KXREDISTRICT…VIR | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 5.0% | $22 | $1.3K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-IL | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 5.0% | $10 | $742 | B | KXREDISTRICT…-MS | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 4.9% | — | $286 | B | KXREDISTRICT…-MN | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 4.8% | $5 | $4.0K | B | KXREDISTRICT…IND | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 4.0% | — | $29 | B | KXREDISTRICT…-AZ | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 3.8% | — | $2.0K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-GA | ||
| What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections | 2026-11-01 | 2.6% | — | $2.8K | B | KXREDISTRICT…-NY |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | geography Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Indiana redistricts its Congressional districts for the elections in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
New congressional district maps must be formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in the geography as of the Expiration Date; AND in effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption, then the market resolves to Yes.
For clarity: maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to "Yes" if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date, maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to "No", maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to "No", and if no new maps are adopted by the date, the market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "geography Secretary of State" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxredistricting-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxredistricting-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxredistricting-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L35HG4NH71",
"slug": "kxredistricting-26",
"question": "Which states will complete redistricting before the 2022 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-redistricting",
"2026-midterms",
"state-legislatures",
"congressional-elections",
"electoral-geography"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 619200,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "geography Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}