Will Palestine be recognized by any country before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Who will recognize Palestine?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Netherlands · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $1 | $875 | A | KXRECOGPALES…DUT | ||
| Japan · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXRECOGPALES…JAP | ||
| Switzerland · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXRECOGPALES…SWI | ||
| Greece · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $984 | A | KXRECOGPALES…GRE | ||
| USA · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $638 | A | KXRECOGPALES…USA | ||
| Singapore · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $14 | A | KXRECOGPALES…SIN | ||
| South Korea · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $62 | A | KXRECOGPALES…-SK | ||
| Germany · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $846 | A | KXRECOGPALES…GER | ||
| Italy · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXRECOGPALES…ITA | ||
| New Zealand · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $935 | A | KXRECOGPALES…-NZ | ||
| Finland · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 9.7% | $7 | $907 | A | KXRECOGPALES…FIN | ||
| Austria · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 3.9% | — | $340 | A | KXRECOGPALES…AUS | ||
| Panama · Who will recognize Palestine? | 2027-01-01 | 2.9% | — | $195 | A | KXRECOGPALES…PAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Italy recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:
- A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state
- Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level
- Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates)
- Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations
- An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty
- A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister
The following do **NOT** constitute recognition:
- Trade relations or commercial agreements alone
- Consular relations without diplomatic relations
- Participation in the same international conference
- Humanitarian assistance or aid
- Cultural or educational exchanges
- Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities)
- Statements of "support" without formal recognition
- De facto cooperation without formal recognition
- Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred
- Parliamentary resolutions without executive action
**For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecogpalestine-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecogpalestine-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrecogpalestine-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
"slug": "kxrecogpalestine-27",
"question": "Will Palestine be recognized by any country before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"palestine-recognition",
"international-diplomacy",
"geopolitical-recognition",
"middle-east-politics",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10535,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}