CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least X times in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 21 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
0 2026-12-31 69.0%
$2.0K $778K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T0
1 2026-12-31 16.0%
$75 $61K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T1
2 2026-12-31 6.4%
$54 $25K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T2
3 2026-12-31 1.6%
$42 $4.5K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T3
4 2026-12-31 1.1%
$2.5K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T4
5 2026-12-31 1.1%
$1.9K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T5
6 2026-12-31 1.2%
$1 $2.1K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T6
7 2026-12-31 0.9%
$1.6K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T7
8 2026-12-31 1.0%
$1.7K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T8
9 2026-12-31 1.0%
$1.9K
A KXRATECUTCOU…-T9
10 2026-12-31 0.6%
$1.1K
A KXRATECUTCOU…T10
11 2026-12-31 0.4%
$594
A KXRATECUTCOU…T11
12 2026-12-31 0.2%
$75
A KXRATECUTCOU…T12
13 2026-12-31 0.3%
$79
A KXRATECUTCOU…T13
14 2026-12-31 1.2%
$2.5K
A KXRATECUTCOU…T14
15 2026-12-31 0.1%
$105
A KXRATECUTCOU…T15
16 2026-12-31 0.1%
$1
A KXRATECUTCOU…T16
17 2026-12-31 0.1%
$1
A KXRATECUTCOU…T17
18 2026-12-31 0.1%
$1
A KXRATECUTCOU…T18
19 2026-12-31 0.1%
$2
A KXRATECUTCOU…T19
20 2026-12-31 0.1%
$3
A KXRATECUTCOU…T20
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Federal Reserve link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 21 markets · share this text
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxratecutcount-26dec31/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxratecutcount-26dec31.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxratecutcount-26dec31")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VMYLRHHXK0",
  "slug": "kxratecutcount-26dec31",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least X times in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2026-economic-outcomes",
    "rate-cuts"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 21,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 883630,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →