Rainfall in Houston, June 2026 [ resolves 2026-07-02 (29D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 1 | 2026-07-02 | 99.0% | $4.8K | $4.9K | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-1 | ||
| ≥ 2 | 2026-07-02 | 98.0% | $193 | $426 | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-2 | ||
| ≥ 3 | 2026-07-02 | 91.0% | $515 | $928 | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-3 | ||
| ≥ 4 | 2026-07-02 | 79.0% | $168 | $402 | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-4 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 2026-07-02 | 63.0% | $450 | $727 | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-5 | ||
| ≥ 6 | 2026-07-02 | 44.0% | $295 | $528 | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-6 | ||
| ≥ 7 | 2026-07-02 | 29.0% | $138 | $226 | A | KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Weather Service | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Data for CLIHOU can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=hgx, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Houston-Hobby, TX" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Weather Service" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrainhoum-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrainhoum-26jun.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrainhoum-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DQGT6M0X84",
"slug": "kxrainhoum-26jun",
"question": "Rainfall in Houston, June 2026",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"houston-weather",
"june-2026",
"precipitation",
"us-texas",
"short-term-forecast"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8170,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Weather Service",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}