Where will it rain on August 4, 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $9.7K | $9.7K | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-ATL | ||
| New York City | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $122 | $129 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-NYC | ||
| Miami | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $4.7K | $4.8K | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-MIA | ||
| Philadelphia | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $44 | $49 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG…HIL | ||
| Washington DC | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $2.0K | $2.3K | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-DC | ||
| Boston | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $34 | $40 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-BOS | ||
| Minneapolis | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $18K | $18K | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-MIN | ||
| Chicago | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $253 | $303 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-CHI | ||
| Austin | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $86 | $87 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-AUS | ||
| New Orleans | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $751 | $756 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG…OLA | ||
| Dallas | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $69 | $69 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-DAL | ||
| San Antonio | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $150 | $151 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG…ATX | ||
| Houston | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $204 | $213 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-HOU | ||
| Oklahoma City | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $16 | $16 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-OKC | ||
| Denver | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $555 | $557 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-DEN | ||
| Los Angeles | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $132 | $143 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-LAX | ||
| Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $25 | $31 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-LV | ||
| San Francisco | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $26 | $34 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-SFO | ||
| Seattle | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $12 | $13 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-SEA | ||
| Phoenix | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $297 | $318 | A | KXRAIN-26AUG04-PHX |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Weather Company | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXRAIN, notice id KXRAIN-2026-07-14):
**Important information:** Markets will settle shortly after 12:00 PM local time of the specified station to allow for final data verification and revisions. For example, a New York market will settle shortly after 12:00 PM ET, while a Los Angeles market will settle shortly after 12:00 PM PT (3:00 PM ET).
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the total precipitation at CLINYC in New York City in Aug 4, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Data for CLINYC can be found by clicking the following URL: https://weather.com/kalshi. “Trace” amounts (T) and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches.
Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the Weather Company linked in the rules above.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Weather Company" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
The Weather Company committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will it rain in Los Angeles on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Phoenix on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Las Vegas on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in San Francisco on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Seattle on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Denver on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Houston on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in New Orleans on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Dallas on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Austin on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Chicago on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will it rain in Minneapolis on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will it rain in San Antonio on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Boston on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Philadelphia on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will it rain in Atlanta on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will it rain in Washington DC on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in Miami on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will it rain in New York City on Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (20 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrain-26aug04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrain-26aug04 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrain-26aug04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y6Y1N6GMT9",
"slug": "kxrain-26aug04",
"question": "Where will it rain on August 4, 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"weather-prediction",
"precipitation",
"location-specific",
"2026",
"august-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 38089,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Weather Company",
"resolution_source_url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Weather Company",
"url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}