Who will finish in second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-08 ]
Will Mallory McMorrow finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mallory McMorrow finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)
For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals
For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography" sources (1) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Haley Stevens finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-25 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Michigan Senate Democratic primary second place near certain Kalshi 99%
- The Kalshi contract on who finishes second in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is priced at 99%, indicating the result is effectively settled.
- El-Sayed's confirmed primary win means the second-place finisher is also determined, making this contract consistent with the reported outcome.
- The primary result sets up a general election contest that will draw national attention given El-Sayed's progressive profile and Michigan's swing-state status.
- Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying Michigan primary results; at 99% the contract leaves minimal residual uncertainty.
- Second place in Michigan Senate Democratic primary near certain Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi contract on who finishes second in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is at 99%, effectively resolved.
- El-Sayed won; Stevens is the near-certain second-place finisher per the AP call cited in the news.
- El-Sayed now faces Republican Mike Rogers in a general election that could decide Senate control, a race not yet fully priced by related markets.
- Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying the Michigan primary results.
- Michigan Senate Democratic primary second-place finish near fully priced Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices 99% on the Michigan Senate Democratic primary second-place finisher being determined, with trading volume up 276x day-over-day, a near-certain settlement.
- El-Sayed's victory over Stevens is the catalyst; at 99%, Kalshi treats the result as effectively resolved.
- Volume surging 276x day-over-day confirms this was a heavily traded event on primary night as results came in.
- Kalshi also prices 81% on El-Sayed, Flanagan, and Hong all winning their respective primaries (CM-EVT-DKZGD9P320), implying the broader progressive slate outcome is not yet fully settled.
- Betting picks up on Stevens finishing 2nd in MI primary 99% · $137K 24h
- Kalshi prices Stevens finishing second at 99%, field has narrowed to two viable candidates.
- 84% of all-time volume in 24h; market conviction on placement is as high as on the winner.
- Implies a clean two-candidate race where Stevens is the only credible runner-up to El-Sayed.
- Resolves on official Michigan primary results reporting candidate vote shares.
- Second place in Michigan Senate Democratic primary stays near full pricing Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi contract on second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary sits at 99%, effectively fully resolved.
- El-Sayed's win is now reported by NBC News, making this a lagging market, the result is known and the contract is pricing a near-certain outcome.
- Resolution is via the official election authority responsible for certifying the result; no remaining uncertainty on the primary outcome.
- The companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) prices Democrats winning all four core Senate races at 55%, meaning the El-Sayed primary win is absorbed but general-election risk remains live.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KW32LYSWB7",
"slug": "kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2",
"question": "Who will finish in second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"2026-primary",
"democratic-primary",
"senate-race",
"second-place-finish"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31132,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}