Who will finish in second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? [ resolves 2027-08-04 (377D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mallory McMorrow finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)
For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals
For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography" sources (1) · single authority
- official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Haley Stevens second-place Michigan primary finish hardens sharply Kalshi 88%
- Kalshi prices an 88% chance Haley Stevens finishes second in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary.
- McMorrow's suspension removes a top-tier competitor, which is consistent with the high probability on Stevens placing second.
- A separate Kalshi contract prices 63% on a Democrat winning the general Michigan Senate election, suggesting the seat remains competitive.
- Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying the Michigan primary result; a recount or certification delay could defer resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KW32LYSWB7",
"slug": "kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2",
"question": "Who will finish in second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"2026-primary",
"democratic-primary",
"senate-race",
"second-place-finish"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12362,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}