Will the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-05-26 (357D) ]
Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 20% and 25%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 99.0% | $25 | $16K | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 3.0% | — | $81 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P22 | ||
| > 25% | 2027-05-26 | 3.0% | — | $67 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P62 | ||
| > 10% | 2027-05-26 | 2.0% | — | $171 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P55 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 1.0% | — | $8 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 1.0% | — | $33 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 1.0% | — | $95 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 1.0% | — | $74 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P12 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary… | 2027-05-26 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P17 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Julie Johnson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Julie Johnson minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julie Johnson if Julie Johnson wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Julie Johnson loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Julie Johnson wins, or the electoral votes received by Julie Johnson minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Julie Johnson does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Julie Johnson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Julie Johnson will be summed.
If Julie Johnson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Julie Johnson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Julie Johnson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Julie Johnson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-tx33d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-tx33d26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-tx33d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1J6X98Z6",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-tx33d26",
"question": "Will the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"election-margins",
"2027-election",
"runoff-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16252,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}