Will the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points? [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 25% and 30% | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $12K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P27 | ||
| Between 0% and 15% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $0 | $107 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Between 15% and 20% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $0 | $61 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P17 | ||
| Between 20% and 25% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $3 | $87 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P22 | ||
| Between 30% and 35% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $0 | $411 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P32 | ||
| Between 35% and 40% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $22 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P37 | ||
| > 40% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $0 | $90 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P70 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 0% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.
If Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 0% and 15%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 15% and 20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 20% and 25%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 25% and 30%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 30% and 35%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be between 35% and 40%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary be above 40%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-senatescr262r/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-senatescr262r |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-senatescr262r") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-84NV3BK2R3",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-senatescr262r",
"question": "Will the South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"south-carolina-politics",
"republican-primary",
"electoral-margin",
"senate-race",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12742,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}