Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
Will the margin of victory for Janet Mills in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 0%?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 0% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $33 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P50 | ||
| > 50% | 2026-07-01 | 100.0% | $2.2K | $188K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P75 | ||
| Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 10% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $0 | $22 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P5 | ||
| Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 10% and 20% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $13 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P15 | ||
| Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 20% and 30% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $0 | $20 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P25 | ||
| Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $1 | $25 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P35 | ||
| Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 40% and 50% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $14 | $409 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P45 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Janet Mills in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Janet Mills minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Janet Mills if Janet Mills wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Janet Mills loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Janet Mills minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Janet Mills if Janet Mills wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Janet Mills loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Janet Mills minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Janet Mills wins, or the electoral votes received by Janet Mills minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Janet Mills does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Janet Mills runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Janet Mills will be summed.
If Janet Mills wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Janet Mills loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Janet Mills ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Janet Mills is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 10% and 20%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 20% and 30%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 40% and 50%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Janet Mills in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 0%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-senatemed/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-senatemed |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-senatemed") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-09QF876RS2",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-senatemed",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maine-politics",
"2026-election",
"democratic-primary",
"senate-race",
"margin-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 188393,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}