Will the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory be at least 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-08 ]
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3% | 2026-08-26 | 100.0% | $1 | $394 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15% | 2027-08-11 | 72.0% | $5.2K | $15K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-08-11 | 12.0% | $22 | $120 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3% | 2027-08-11 | 7.0% | — | $49 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-08-11 | 6.0% | $8 | $37 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-08-11 | 6.0% | — | $40 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-08-11 | 5.0% | — | $20 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-08-11 | 2.0% | — | $44 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15% | 2027-08-11 | 2.0% | — | $37 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-08-11 | 1.0% | — | $31 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-08-11 | 1.0% | — | $44 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-08-11 | 1.0% | — | $27 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):
**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wins, the margin will be positive; if Francesca Hong loses, the margin will be negative; if Francesca Hong ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Francesca Hong runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%? | kalshi | 2026-08-26 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Crowley margin contract trades near certainty after primary 99% · $76K 24h
- Kalshi prices Crowley hitting his victory-margin threshold at 99%, effectively a resolved line.
- $76K in 24h is 83% of all-time volume, consistent with a settlement-driven flush.
- Companion to the nomination contract; both moving to 99-100% in the same session confirms primary outcome.
- Resolves on the certified margin of victory in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-govwinomd26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-govwinomd26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-govwinomd26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-govwinomd26",
"question": "Will the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory be at least 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"wisconsin-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"gubernatorial-election",
"margin-of-victory",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16308,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}