What will be the margin of victory in the South Carolina Republican Governor primary first round? [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 5%?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 0% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $50 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P50 | ||
| Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 5% | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $757 | $12K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 5% and 10% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $95 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 10% and 15% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $31 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P12 | ||
| Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 15% and 20% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $36 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P17 | ||
| Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 20% and 25% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $28 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P22 | ||
| > 25% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $72 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P62 | ||
| > 0% | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $62 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Pamela Evette minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Pamela Evette minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Pamela Evette if Pamela Evette wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Pamela Evette loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Pamela Evette wins, or the electoral votes received by Pamela Evette minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Pamela Evette does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Pamela Evette runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Pamela Evette will be summed.
If Pamela Evette wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Pamela Evette loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Pamela Evette ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Pamela Evette is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 5%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 5% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 10% and 15%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 15% and 20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be between 20% and 25%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Pamela Evette in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be above 25%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Alan Wilson in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be above 0%? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary be above 0%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-govscnomr26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-govscnomr26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-govscnomr26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W343V1FP64",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-govscnomr26",
"question": "What will be the margin of victory in the South Carolina Republican Governor primary first round?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"south-carolina-politics",
"republican-primary",
"gubernatorial-race",
"margin-of-victory",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12543,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}