Will the California governor primary margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points? [ resolved 2026-07-11 ]
Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2%?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $125 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $153 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P3 | ||
| Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 4% and 6% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $29 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P5 | ||
| Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 8% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $15 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 8% and 10% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $100 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P9 | ||
| > 10% | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $181 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P55 | ||
| Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4% | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | $689 | $18K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P3 | ||
| Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $98 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 4% and 6% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $26 | $747 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P5 | ||
| Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 8% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $343 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 8% and 10% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $174 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P9 | ||
| > 10% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $1 | $260 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P55 | ||
| Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $67 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $92 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P3 | ||
| Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 4% and 6% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $79 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P5 | ||
| Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 8% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $49 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 8% and 10% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $19 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P9 | ||
| > 10% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $129 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P55 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 2%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra wins, or the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Xavier Becerra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Xavier Becerra will be summed.
If Xavier Becerra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Xavier Becerra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Xavier Becerra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Xavier Becerra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 4% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 8%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 8% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be above 10%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 4% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 8%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 8% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be above 10%? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be above 10%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 8% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 4% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 8%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4%? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (18 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-cagovprimary1st26jun021st/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-cagovprimary1st26jun021st |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-cagovprimary1st26jun021st") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RQ1C79NLZ1",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-cagovprimary1st26jun021st",
"question": "Will the California governor primary margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"gubernatorial-primary",
"election-margin",
"2027-election",
"competitive-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21143,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}