Will Ken Paxton win a majority of Texas counties in the Republican Senate runoff? [ resolved 2026-06-12 ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 2026-06-12 | 0.0% | $29 | $158 | B | KXPRIMARYCOU…TRA | ||
| Harris | 2026-06-12 | 100.0% | — | $6.1K | B | KXPRIMARYCOU…HAR | ||
| Bexar | 2026-06-12 | 100.0% | — | $33K | B | KXPRIMARYCOU…BEX | ||
| Dallas | 2026-06-12 | 100.0% | $20 | $55K | B | KXPRIMARYCOU…DAL | ||
| Tarrant | 2026-06-12 | 100.0% | — | $7.3K | B | KXPRIMARYCOU…TAR | ||
| El Paso | 2026-06-12 | 100.0% | — | $13K | B | KXPRIMARYCOU…ELP |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | state board of elections or canvassing board | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff in Harris County, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "state board of elections or canvassing board" sources (1) · single authority
- state board of elections or canvassing board source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Ken Paxton win El Paso County? | kalshi | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Ken Paxton win Tarrant County? | kalshi | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Ken Paxton win Dallas County? | kalshi | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Ken Paxton win Bexar County? | kalshi | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Ken Paxton win Harris County? | kalshi | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will Ken Paxton win Travis County? | kalshi | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RBF032VBB7",
"slug": "kxprimarycounty-senatetxr26",
"question": "Will Ken Paxton win a majority of Texas counties in the Republican Senate runoff?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-politics",
"republican-primary",
"county-level",
"ken-paxton",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 114632,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}