Will Pope Leo visit any countries in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peru | 2027-01-01 | 96.0% | $280 | $13K | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…PER | ||
| Argentina | 2027-01-01 | 89.0% | — | $23K | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…ARG | ||
| Uruguay | 2027-01-01 | 79.0% | — | $21K | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…URU | ||
| Mexico | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | $19 | $7.5K | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…MEX | ||
| Brazil | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | — | $1.0K | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…BRA | ||
| Portugal | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $632 | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…POR | ||
| Israel | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $766 | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…ISR | ||
| Philippines | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $25 | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…PHI | ||
| Ukraine | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $969 | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…UKR | ||
| United States | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $7.2K | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…USA | ||
| Jordan | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $22 | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…JOR | ||
| South Sudan | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $250 | C | KXPOPEVISIT-…SUD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Guardian | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Peru before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Guardian" sources (17)
- The Guardian venue-listed
- official representatives or offices of <person> venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CNBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area> venue-listed
- official government sources of <area> venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpopevisit-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpopevisit-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpopevisit-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
"slug": "kxpopevisit-27jan01",
"question": "Will Pope Leo visit any countries in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"papal-visits",
"pope-leo",
"international-travel",
"2027",
"geopolitics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 75599,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Guardian",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official representatives or offices of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government sources of ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}