Will New York City's population increase from July 2025 to July 2027? [ resolves 2028-06-01 (679D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3% | 2028-06-01 | 5.0% | — | $427 | C | KXPOPCHANGEN…NAN | ||
| -2% | 2028-06-01 | 3.0% | — | $121 | C | KXPOPCHANGEN…-2N | ||
| -1% | 2028-06-01 | 5.0% | $1 | $505 | C | KXPOPCHANGEN…-1N | ||
| 0% | 2028-06-01 | 30.0% | $25 | $6.4K | C | KXPOPCHANGEN…-0N | ||
| 0.99% | 2028-06-01 | 39.0% | — | $5.1K | C | KXPOPCHANGEN….99 | ||
| 1.99% | 2028-06-01 | 9.0% | — | $814 | C | KXPOPCHANGEN….99 | ||
| 3% | 2028-06-01 | 5.0% | — | $487 | C | KXPOPCHANGEN…-NA | ||
| 3% | 2028-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $63 | C | KXPOPCHANGEN….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the United Nations Population Division | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If New York City experiences a population increase of between -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the United Nations Population Division" ↗ sources (12) · single authority
- the United Nations Population Division venue-listed
- the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development venue-listed
- the World Bank venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- BBC News venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography source of record venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpopchangenyc-28jun01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpopchangenyc-28jun01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpopchangenyc-28jun01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HW3KB7FMZ1",
"slug": "kxpopchangenyc-28jun01",
"question": "Will New York City's population increase from July 2025 to July 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"nyc-demographics",
"population-metrics",
"urban-migration",
"us-cities",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13959,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "the United Nations Population Division",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the United Nations Population Division",
"url": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development",
"url": "https://www.oecd.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the World Bank",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}