Will Zyn US shipment volume increase in Q2 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-20 (28D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 160 | 2026-08-20 | 98.0% | $31 | $29K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 165 | 2026-08-20 | 99.0% | $254 | $32K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 170 | 2026-08-20 | 96.0% | $2.1K | $11K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 175 | 2026-08-20 | 96.0% | $773 | $7.7K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 180 | 2026-08-20 | 94.0% | $396 | $9.1K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 185 | 2026-08-20 | 99.0% | $2.1K | $16K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 190 | 2026-08-20 | 69.0% | $1.5K | $11K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 195 | 2026-08-20 | 12.0% | $553 | $2.9K | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 200 | 2026-08-20 | 5.0% | $27 | $453 | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 205 | 2026-08-20 | 2.0% | $11 | $161 | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 | ||
| > 210 | 2026-08-20 | 2.0% | $6 | $156 | C | KXPM-26JULZY…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Philip Morris International Inc reports Above 160000000 zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1) · single authority
- Fiscal.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Zyn 165M shipment bar stays a near-certainty 98% · $25K 24h
- Kalshi prices 98% on PMI clearing 165M U.S. Zyn shipments, market sees this as a formality.
- 24h volume of $24.8K is 78% of all-time, meaning almost the entire contract history traded today.
- PMI earnings cycle likely imminent, drawing capital to lock in the near-certain side at minimal edge.
- Resolves on PMI's official reported U.S. Zyn shipment figure for the relevant period.
- Zyn 160M shipment line draws heavy late trading 98% · $24K 24h
- Kalshi marks this contract at 98%, the lower 160M bar is priced as even more certain than the 165M line.
- 24h volume of $23.6K equals 81% of all-time flow, the highest lifetime-share of the two Zyn contracts.
- Parallel surge alongside the 165M contract points to a coordinated earnings-driven positioning sweep.
- Resolves against PMI's disclosed U.S. Zyn shipment volume for the period in question.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpm-26julzynship/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpm-26julzynship |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpm-26julzynship") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KP0JV78PC7",
"slug": "kxpm-26julzynship",
"question": "Will Zyn US shipment volume increase in Q2 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"zyn-shipments",
"philip-morris",
"q2-2026",
"us-tobacco-alternatives",
"nicotine-pouches"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 118509,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}