Core PCE inflation rate month-over-month, May 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-25 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2026-06-25 | 100.0% | — | $303 | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2026-06-25 | 100.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-06-25 | 100.0% | $69 | $4.5K | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $46 | $7.6K | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $89 | $411 | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Economic Analysis | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.0% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Bureau of Economic Analysis source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Core PCE above zero in May nears full pricing consensus Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices May core PCE above 0.2% at 89% and above 0.3% at only 48%, placing the market-implied print squarely in the 0.2-0.3% range.
- A print at or above 0.3% would validate the Fed's hawkish shift; the market gives that outcome roughly even odds, not a consensus.
- The above-0.4% strike at just 13% shows the market is not pricing a hot surprise; a 0.2% or 0.3% read would be broadly expected and may not move policy expectations.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics PCE release; the contract settles on the first published figure, not subsequent revisions.
- May core PCE above zero nears full pricing in the distribution Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's ladder centers May core PCE in the 0.2-0.3% range: 89% above 0.2% but only 48% above 0.3%, with 99% above zero.
- The retail sales beat adds upside pressure on the 0.3% strike, which sits at near coin-flip odds, consistent with a market that had already anticipated firm consumption.
- A print above 0.3% would reinforce the hawkish Warsh FOMC narrative and lift the probability of the Fed funds hike scenario priced at 40% on Polymarket.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE release for May 2026; core PCE month-over-month is the settlement metric.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpcecore-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpcecore-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpcecore-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
"slug": "kxpcecore-26may",
"question": "Core PCE inflation rate month-over-month, May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"core-pce",
"inflation-us",
"economic-data",
"may-2026",
"monthly-rate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14520,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}