Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job growth? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2027-01-01 | 93.0% | — | $100 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2027-01-01 | 83.0% | — | $170 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-01-01 | 85.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2027-01-01 | 80.0% | — | $49 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2027-01-01 | 94.0% | — | $960 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-01-01 | 78.0% | — | $296 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2027-01-01 | 68.0% | — | $190 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2027-01-01 | 72.0% | $1 | $337 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2027-01-01 | 66.0% | $26 | $472 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2027-01-01 | 57.0% | $17 | $24 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2027-01-01 | 51.0% | $5 | $306 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2027-01-01 | 49.0% | $2 | $1.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2027-01-01 | 39.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- September jobs outlook stays cautious after shock print Kalshi ladder
- Ladder pins September 2026 payrolls in the 50K-60K range: 93% above -25K, 83% above zero, but only 44% above 60K.
- July came in at -23K vs. +80K expected; the ladder's subdued September outlook is consistent with a weakening trend.
- October ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies 70K-80K, suggesting markets see July as a one-month shock rather than a sustained collapse.
- Both ladders resolve via BLS Employment Situation releases; benchmark revisions could shift implied ranges materially.
- July jobs report odds sit near 50-50 at 90,000-100,000 range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies roughly 90,000-100,000 jobs added, with 51% above 90K and 49% above 100K, a near-coin-flip at that boundary.
- The jobs report is the key near-term catalyst; the market is straddling the 90K-100K line with no strong directional lean.
- The 30-40% range above 125K suggests the market is assigning limited probability to an upside surprise that would sharpen Fed hike expectations.
- Resolution: Bureau of Labor Statistics official nonfarm payrolls release settles each strike on this Kalshi ladder.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
"question": "Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job growth?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"employment",
"us-labor-market",
"september-2026",
"economic-data",
"monthly-jobs"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7628,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}