Nonfarm payroll jobs added, May 2026 [ resolves 2026-06-05 (2D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -50,000 | 2026-06-05 | 96.0% | $790 | $3.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ -25,000 | 2026-06-05 | 93.0% | $661 | $4.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ -10,000 | 2026-06-05 | 89.0% | $179 | $3.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 0 | 2026-06-05 | 85.0% | $1.1K | $7.6K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| ≥ 10,000 | 2026-06-05 | 84.0% | $1.7K | $6.0K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 20,000 | 2026-06-05 | 83.0% | $996 | $22K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 30,000 | 2026-06-05 | 80.0% | $3.3K | $33K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 40,000 | 2026-06-05 | 75.0% | $186 | $14K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 50,000 | 2026-06-05 | 71.0% | $1.3K | $14K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 60,000 | 2026-06-05 | 67.0% | $2.1K | $24K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 70,000 | 2026-06-05 | 66.0% | $904 | $13K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 80,000 | 2026-06-05 | 60.0% | $579 | $21K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 90,000 | 2026-06-05 | 53.0% | $388 | $16K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 100,000 | 2026-06-05 | 41.0% | $2.1K | $20K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 110,000 | 2026-06-05 | 34.0% | $276 | $16K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 125,000 | 2026-06-05 | 29.0% | $456 | $6.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| ≥ 150,000 | 2026-06-05 | 18.0% | $427 | $2.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau Of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau Of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
- May 2026 nonfarm payrolls implied 70k-80k: Kalshi
- Kalshi ladder implies May 2026 payrolls in the 70k-80k range: 77% above 30k, 53% above 70k, only 45% above 80k.
- April's 7.6 million job openings print is consistent with the positive-but-modest payroll range the ladder prices; no market shock implied.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76 for October 2026 shows similar 70k-80k implied range, suggesting the market sees no near-term deterioration.
- Resolves via BLS Employment Situation report for May 2026; the ladder settles at the reported seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll change.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26may.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
"question": "Nonfarm payroll jobs added, May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-jobs",
"employment",
"economic-indicators",
"may-2026",
"labor-market"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 226232,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}