Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 32.0% | $1.2K | $11K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SUD | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $10 | $1.6K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DOC | ||
| Save the Children · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $1 | $307 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…STC | ||
| Shehbaz Sharif · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 8.9% | $70 | $87 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SHA | ||
| Yulia Navalnaya · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $37 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…NAV | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $34 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…KUL | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $46 | $1.2K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…VOL | ||
| Donald Trump · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $82 | $24K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DJT | ||
| Narges Mohammadi · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $50 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…NAR | ||
| Minneapolis · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $1 | $603 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…MIN | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…CPJ | ||
| International Criminal Court · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $9 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ICC | ||
| Pope Leo XIV · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $41 | $1.4K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…LEO | ||
| UNRWA · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $175 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…RWA | ||
| Francesca Albanese · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $97 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…FRA | ||
| Elon Musk · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $192 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ELO | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $93 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ICJ | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $15 | A | KXNOBELPEACE-26-CE | ||
| European Union · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…EUR | ||
| Dario Amodei · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DAR | ||
| Sam Altman · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SAM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Nobel Prize organization | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Nobel Prize organization" sources (1) · single authority
Nobel Prize organization committed source
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnobelpeace-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnobelpeace-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnobelpeace-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
"slug": "kxnobelpeace-26",
"question": "Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"nobel-peace-prize",
"2026",
"international-recognition",
"peace-advocacy",
"annual-award"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40659,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Nobel Prize organization",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Nobel Prize organization",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}