Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | $30 | $4.4K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SUD | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $3 | $1.3K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DOC | ||
| Save the Children · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $5 | $242 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…STC | ||
| Yulia Navalnaya · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $34 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…NAV | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $1 | $31 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…KUL | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $1 | $955 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…VOL | ||
| UNRWA · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $2 | $106 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…RWA | ||
| Donald Trump · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $5 | $24K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DJT | ||
| Minneapolis · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $492 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…MIN | ||
| Narges Mohammadi · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $37 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…NAR | ||
| Elon Musk · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $181 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ELO | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $93 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ICJ | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $15 | A | KXNOBELPEACE-26-CE | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $0 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…CPJ | ||
| International Criminal Court · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | $1 | $3 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ICC | ||
| Pope Leo XIV · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | $0 | $625 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…LEO | ||
| Francesca Albanese · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $30 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…FRA | ||
| European Union · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…EUR | ||
| Dario Amodei · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DAR | ||
| Sam Altman · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | $0 | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SAM | ||
| Shehbaz Sharif · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SHA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Nobel Prize organization | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Nobel Prize organization" sources (1) · single authority
- Nobel Prize organization source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnobelpeace-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnobelpeace-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnobelpeace-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
"slug": "kxnobelpeace-26",
"question": "Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"nobel-peace-prize",
"2026",
"international-recognition",
"peace-advocacy",
"annual-award"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32291,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Nobel Prize organization",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Nobel Prize organization",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}