Will the lowest natural gas spot price in 2026 be below $3 per MMBtu? [ resolves 2027-01-15 (176D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $1.6 | 2027-01-15 | 10.0% | — | $209 | A | KXNGASMIN-26….60 | ||
| ≤ $1.8 | 2027-01-15 | 15.0% | — | $56 | A | KXNGASMIN-26….80 | ||
| ≤ $2 | 2027-01-15 | 7.0% | — | $26 | A | KXNGASMIN-26….00 | ||
| ≤ $2.2 | 2027-01-15 | 5.0% | — | $4 | A | KXNGASMIN-26….20 | ||
| ≤ $2.4 | 2027-01-15 | 25.0% | — | $264 | A | KXNGASMIN-26….40 | ||
| ≤ $2.6 | 2027-01-15 | 99.0% | — | $16K | A | KXNGASMIN-26….60 | ||
| ≤ $2.8 | 2027-01-15 | 99.0% | — | $2.8K | A | KXNGASMIN-26….80 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Energy Information Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Henry Hub natural gas spot price below $2.60 per million Btu on any day after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Energy Information Administration" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Energy Information Administration source of record venue-listed
- U.S. Energy Information Administration from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the price of natural gas get below $2.60 per million BTU before January 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-05-20 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxngasmin-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxngasmin-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxngasmin-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YPZGNHXW59",
"slug": "kxngasmin-26dec31",
"question": "Will the lowest natural gas spot price in 2026 be below $3 per MMBtu?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"natural-gas",
"commodities",
"energy-prices",
"spot-prices",
"2026",
"economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19380,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Energy Information Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_FUT_S1_D.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Energy Information Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Energy Information Administration",
"url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_FUT_S1_D.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}