How many people will Neuralink have implanted by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (169D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 90.0% | — | $2.8K | C | KXNEURALINKC…-25 | ||
| How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 75.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXNEURALINKC…-30 | ||
| How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 49.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXNEURALINKC…-40 | ||
| How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 43.0% | — | $485 | C | KXNEURALINKC…-50 | ||
| How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 12.0% | — | $167 | C | KXNEURALINKC…-75 | ||
| How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 14.0% | — | $145 | C | KXNEURALINKC…100 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Neuralink | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.
Cumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.
The implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 25.
For the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following:
The N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink
Devices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue
Both fully functional and partially functional implanted devices
Devices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes
The following do NOT count as Neuralink implants:
External devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces
Devices developed by other companies, even if similar in function
Neuralink devices implanted in animals
Theoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures
If Neuralink merges with a different company or changes its name, the Contract will continue to track the successor entity.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Neuralink" sources (3) · single authority
- Neuralink source of record venue-listed
- Barrow Neurological Institute venue-listed
- Elon Musk venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxneuralinkcount-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxneuralinkcount-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxneuralinkcount-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K2KVW60PK3",
"slug": "kxneuralinkcount-26",
"question": "How many people will Neuralink have implanted by the end of 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"neuralink",
"neural-implants",
"brain-computer-interface",
"2026-implants",
"medical-technology"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5880,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Neuralink",
"resolution_source_url": "https://neuralink.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Neuralink",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Neuralink",
"url": "https://neuralink.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Barrow Neurological Institute",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}