Will the next US recession start by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will the next U.S. recession start | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $2.5K | A | KXNBERRECESS…026 | ||
| When will the next U.S. recession start | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $2.0K | A | KXNBERRECESS…025 | ||
| When will the next U.S. recession start | 2026-12-31 | 1.6% | — | $1.3K | A | KXNBERRECESS…025 | ||
| When will the next U.S. recession start | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXNBERRECESS…025 | ||
| When will the next U.S. recession start | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $43 | A | KXNBERRECESS…024 | ||
| When will the next U.S. recession start | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $0 | $75 | A | KXNBERRECESS…025 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | NBER | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "NBER" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- NBER source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnberrecessq/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnberrecessq |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnberrecessq") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FGMH0SRW94",
"slug": "kxnberrecessq",
"question": "Will the next US recession start by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-recession",
"macroeconomic-forecast",
"economic-downturn",
"nber-dating",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7205,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "NBER",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "NBER",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "NBER",
"url": "https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}