Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 19,000 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $7 | $88K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…000 | ||
| 19,500 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $452 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 20,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $910 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 20,500 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $397 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 21,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $566 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 21,500 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $989 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 22,000 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $1 | $1.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 22,500 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $398 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 23,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $526 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 23,500 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $2 | $408 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 24,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $282 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 24,500 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $835 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 25,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $518 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 25,500 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $596 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 26,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $0 | $844 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 26,500 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $935 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 27,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $832 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 27,500 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $654 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 28,000 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $1 | $1.4K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 28,500 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $5 | $781 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 29,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $47 | $974 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 29,500 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 30,000 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $1.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 30,500 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $7 | $1.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 31,000 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $2.4K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 31,500 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $4 | $2.4K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| 32,000 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $2.4K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| 32,500 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $19 | $2.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| ≥ 33,000 | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | $593 | $36K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…000 | ||
| 33,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $14 | $564 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JPWZDPJ339",
"slug": "kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600",
"question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nasdaq-100",
"stock-index",
"eoy-price",
"2026",
"us-equities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 153565,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}