Will the Nasdaq-100 reach a new all-time high by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 25,600 | 2026-12-31 | 75.0% | — | $23K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 25,800 | 2026-12-31 | 65.0% | — | $7.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 26,000 | 2026-12-31 | 63.0% | — | $7.9K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 26,200 | 2026-12-31 | 99.5% | — | $40K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 26,400 | 2026-12-31 | 99.2% | — | $4.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 26,600 | 2026-12-31 | 99.1% | — | $5.9K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 26,800 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 27,000 | 2026-12-31 | 96.9% | — | $1.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 27,200 | 2026-12-31 | 95.3% | — | $1.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 27,400 | 2026-12-31 | 99.5% | — | $4.9K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 27,600 | 2026-12-31 | 99.6% | — | $4.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 27,800 | 2026-12-31 | 95.0% | — | $7.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 28,000 | 2026-12-31 | 88.0% | — | $5.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 28,200 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $13K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 28,400 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $27K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 28,600 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $12K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 28,800 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $8.3K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 29,000 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $28K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 29,500 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $20K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 30,000 | 2026-12-31 | 99.8% | — | $149K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 30,200 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $26 | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 30,400 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | $11 | $1.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 30,600 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $3.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| ≥ 30,800 | 2026-12-31 | 96.0% | $418 | $6.4K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 25599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Nasdaq-100 above 30K before Dec 31: 99% on $63K
- Kalshi consensus at 99%, market treats NDX breaching 30K by year-end as near-certain.
- $63K in 24h is 62% of all-time volume; contract likely newly issued and filling initial liquidity.
- NDX currently near or above threshold; contract may reflect recent index level confirmation.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; tail risk priced at 1%.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HYFSJ2CNW7",
"slug": "kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600",
"question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 reach a new all-time high by the end of 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nasdaq-100",
"stock-index",
"price-ceiling",
"2026",
"equities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 382741,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}