Will the Michigan Senate election winner be a Democrat or Republican? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Abdul El-Sayed · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?	2026-11-03	49.0%	$56	$5.1K	A	`KXMISENATE-26-AELS`
Mike Rogers · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?	2026-11-03	29.0%	$27	$2.8K	A	`KXMISENATE-26-MROG`
Haley Stevens · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?	2026-11-03	20.0%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXMISENATE-26-HSTE`
Mallory McMorrow · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?	2026-11-03	9.0%	—	$476	A	`KXMISENATE-26-MMCM`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	relevant county clerk or board of elections	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 4 markets · share this text

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmisenate-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmisenate-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxmisenate-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3C5B1QX9N9",
  "slug": "kxmisenate-26",
  "question": "Will the Michigan Senate election winner be a Democrat or Republican?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-2026",
    "michigan-politics",
    "electoral-outcome",
    "binary-person",
    "political-election"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9995,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →