Will a specific person win the Michigan Senate election by 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallory McMorrow · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | 2026-10-15 | 0.0% | $0 | $76 | A | KXMISENATE-26-MMCM | ||
| Haley Stevens · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | 2026-10-15 | 0.0% | $578 | $3.6K | A | KXMISENATE-26-HSTE | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | $5.0K | $168K | A | KXMISENATE-26-AELS | ||
| Mike Rogers · Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $7.6K | $57K | A | KXMISENATE-26-MROG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
relevant county clerk or board of elections venue-listed Attorney General of the United States venue-listed relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed the Federal Election Commission venue-listed state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | kalshi | 2026-10-15 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? | kalshi | 2026-10-15 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmisenate-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmisenate-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmisenate-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3C5B1QX9N9",
"slug": "kxmisenate-26",
"question": "Will a specific person win the Michigan Senate election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"michigan-politics",
"electoral-outcome",
"binary-person",
"political-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 228094,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}