Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points? [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election… | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $11K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P3 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election… | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $11K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P6 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election… | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $13K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P9 | ||
| 12 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $25K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P12 | ||
| 15 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $20K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P15 | ||
| 18 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $4.8K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P18 | ||
| 21 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $22K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P21 | ||
| 24 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $17K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P24 | ||
| 27 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | — | $4.7K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P27 | ||
| 30 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $14 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P30 | ||
| 33 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P33 | ||
| 36 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P36 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.
If Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 6 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 15 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 18 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 21 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 24 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 27 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 30 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 33 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 36 percentage points? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-txsenpkpax/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermmov-txsenpkpax |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermmov-txsenpkpax") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XS8332JBB4",
"slug": "kxmidtermmov-txsenpkpax",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-primary",
"republican-primary",
"margin-of-victory",
"ken-paxton",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 128950,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}