Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (518D) ]

Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 3 percentage points?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 1	2027-11-03	89.0%	$347	$8.7K	A	`KXMIDTERMMOV…-P1`
≥ 3	2027-11-03	41.0%	$381	$2.2K	A	`KXMIDTERMMOV…-P3`
≥ 5	2027-11-03	99.0%	$2.6K	$11K	A	`KXMIDTERMMOV…-P5`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 3 markets · share this text

If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Xavier Becerra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Xavier Becerra will be summed. If Xavier Becerra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Xavier Becerra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Xavier Becerra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Xavier Becerra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-cagovpxbece/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermmov-cagovpxbece.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermmov-cagovpxbece")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FXN0YK6LH6",
  "slug": "kxmidtermmov-cagovpxbece",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-politics",
    "governor-primary",
    "margin-of-victory",
    "2027-election",
    "electoral-outcomes"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 21846,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in ",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →