Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 19 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (518D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 10 | 2027-11-03 | 92.2% | — | $816 | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P10 | ||
| ≥ 13 | 2027-11-03 | 86.0% | — | $766 | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P13 | ||
| ≥ 16 | 2027-11-03 | 83.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P16 | ||
| ≥ 19 | 2027-11-03 | 64.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P19 | ||
| ≥ 22 | 2027-11-03 | 60.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P22 | ||
| ≥ 25 | 2027-11-03 | 53.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P25 | ||
| ≥ 28 | 2027-11-03 | 47.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P28 | ||
| ≥ 31 | 2027-11-03 | 15.0% | — | $436 | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P31 | ||
| ≥ 34 | 2027-11-03 | 11.0% | — | $309 | A | KXMIDTERMMOV…P34 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.
If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-ar03r/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermmov-ar03r.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermmov-ar03r") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BL6HFHK4H3",
"slug": "kxmidtermmov-ar03r",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 19 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-elections",
"arkansas-politics",
"2027-election",
"margin-of-victory",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10286,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}