Will the midterm elections happen on schedule? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time | 2026-11-03 | 100.0% | $2.0K | $29K | C | KXMIDTERMHAP…T50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional districts, such that votes cast on that date in each such district are eligible to be counted toward determining the winner of the election in that district. Lawful means of accepting ballots include in person at polling places, by mail, by absentee voting, by provisional ballot, or by other lawful means accepted on that date.
Localized disruptions within a congressional district do not disqualify that district from being "conducted on time" so long as ballots are lawfully accepted somewhere within the district on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026. These include, without limitation:
Individual polling places opening late or closing early
Individual voting machines malfunctioning
Localized power, weather, or connectivity outages
However, if on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 no ballots are lawfully accepted anywhere within one or more of a state's congressional districts, the state is not "conducted on time" regardless of whether ballots are accepted in other congressional districts within that state.
An election that is postponed to, rescheduled to, conducted on, or otherwise held on a date other than the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in a state does not qualify as "conducted on time" in that state, regardless of the reason for the change of date and regardless of whether such change is lawful. This includes, without limitation, any change effected by federal legislation, executive order, presidential proclamation, federal agency directive, state law or proclamation, court order, or any other instrument. Ballots cast before the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 through early voting do not, by themselves, satisfy this criterion in a state unless ballots are also lawfully accepted on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in that state.
Special elections to fill vacancies, primary elections, and elections to non-voting delegate seats (including those representing the District of Columbia and U.S. territories) are not, by themselves, the "regularly scheduled biennial federal general election" referenced herein. The validity, fairness, certification status, or subsequent judicial treatment of any such election does not affect whether the election was "conducted on time" for purposes of this Contract; the test is whether election officials in the relevant state lawfully accepted ballots in the election on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (15) · single authority
The Washington Post venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed CBS News venue-listed Fox News venue-listed the Federal Election Commission committed source the New York Times venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed the U venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed NBC News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed BBC News venue-listed CNN venue-listed ABC News venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Midterm elections proceeding on schedule stays near certain Kalshi 93%
- Kalshi prices the midterm elections proceeding on schedule at 93%, treating the California ballot dispute as unlikely to derail election day.
- The emergency Supreme Court appeal targets 20,000 California ballots; the Kalshi contract implies markets see this as a localized legal skirmish, not a systemic delay.
- The Polymarket CA-25 contract (CM-EVT-3DFWF9RX19 at 98%) pricing a November 3 California district winner determination is consistent with election day proceeding normally.
- Resolution via The Washington Post's certification of election-day execution; a Supreme Court intervention blocking the election outright would be the edge case invalidating the 93% consensus.
- Midterm elections on schedule stays firmly priced near certainty Kalshi 93%
- Kalshi prices the midterm elections proceeding on schedule at 93%, treating legal challenges like the California ballot dispute as unlikely to derail the November 3 date.
- The DOJ ballot challenge being rejected by an appeals court is consistent with the market's near-certainty; legal friction is not moving the probability toward disruption.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the California 25th District winner (CM-EVT-3DFWF9RX19) sits at 94%, showing district-level markets also pricing normal resolution timelines.
- Resolves via The Washington Post; Kalshi will look for independent reporting confirming elections occurred as scheduled on November 3.
- Midterm elections running on schedule stays heavily favored Kalshi 87%
- Kalshi prices an 87% probability that the midterm elections proceed on their scheduled date.
- Diverse voter issue salience, including corruption as the top concern per a CNBC survey, has not shifted the scheduling probability.
- The 13% residual reflects general uncertainty around election disruption, not any specific announced threat.
- Resolution source is The Washington Post; any postponement or cancellation announcement would trigger settlement mechanics.
- Midterm elections proceeding on schedule stays near certain Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% probability that the midterm elections will happen on schedule despite reported federal actions around voting infrastructure.
- The CBS News story raises interference concerns, but the prediction market prices an on-schedule election as the strong baseline, not treating federal actions as a credible disruption threat.
- Companion Kalshi contracts on specific races (Michigan 10th at 67%, Georgia Governor at 49% via Polymarket) show competitive individual contests, consistent with a normal election proceeding.
- Resolves via The Washington Post as the named resolution source; any official postponement or large-scale disruption announcement would be the key settlement trigger.
- Midterm elections happening on schedule stays heavily favored at 91% Kalshi 91%
- Kalshi puts 91% odds on the 2026 midterm elections proceeding on their scheduled date.
- Trump's rejection of international election observers is a procedural controversy, but the market's 91% pricing shows high confidence the elections themselves will occur on time.
- The 9% residual reflects tail risk around election disruption, but the market is not treating the OSCE rejection as a credible scheduling threat.
- Resolves via The Washington Post; likely requires a credible public report confirming elections were held or formally postponed on the scheduled date.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermhappen-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
"slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
"question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms-2026",
"electoral-timing",
"us-politics",
"election-administration",
"binary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://cbsnews.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the U",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}