Will the Maryland 5th Congressional District Democratic nominee be determined by December 31, 2024? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 72.0% | $1 | $7.5K | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…BOA | ||
| Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 19.0% | — | $160 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…DUN | ||
| Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 15.0% | — | $150 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…BAK | ||
| Will Nicole Williams be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 5.7% | — | $16 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…WIL | ||
| Will Wala Blegay be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 5.2% | — | $12 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…BLE | ||
| Will Arthur Ellis be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 3.0% | — | $3 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…ELL | ||
| Will Terry Jackson be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 3.0% | — | $3 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…JAC | ||
| Will Jerry Lightfoot be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $1 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…LIG | ||
| Will Heather Luper be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $3 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…LUP | ||
| Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 1.1% | — | $12 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…BAR | ||
| Will Mark Kenneth Arness be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…ARN | ||
| Will Reuben Collins II be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…COL | ||
| Will Ellis Colvin be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…COL | ||
| Will Elldwnia English be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…ENG | ||
| Will Harry Jarin be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…JAR | ||
| Will Walter Kirkland be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…KIR | ||
| Will James Makle Jr. be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…MAK | ||
| Will Leigha Messick be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…MES | ||
| Will Keith Salkowski be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…SAL | ||
| Will Kenneth Simons be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…SIM | ||
| Will Alexis Solis be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…SOL | ||
| Will Tracy Starr be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…STA | ||
| Will Dave Sundberg be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…SUN | ||
| Will Harold Tolbert be the Democratic nominee for MD-05 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | C | KXMDPRIMARY-…TOL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mark Kenneth Arness wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MD-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmdprimary-05d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmdprimary-05d26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmdprimary-05d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MX5Y35ZL63",
"slug": "kxmdprimary-05d26",
"question": "Will the Maryland 5th Congressional District Democratic nominee be determined by December 31, 2024?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maryland-politics",
"2027-election",
"democratic-nominee",
"us-house",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7848,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 29,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}