Will the best AI system at the end of 2026 be released by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or another organization? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Best AI in Dec 2026?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 65.2% | $6.8K | $814K | A | KXLLM1-26DEC31-A | ||
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 14.2% | $875 | $121K | A | KXLLM1-26DEC…OOG | ||
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 13.1% | $1.4K | $130K | A | KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI | ||
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 6.1% | $148 | $42K | A | KXLLM1-26DEC31-XAI | ||
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.9% | $181 | $9.8K | A | KXLLM1-26DEC…ETA | ||
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $2 | $805 | A | KXLLM1-26DEC…AID | ||
| Best AI in Dec 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $988 | A | KXLLM1-26DEC31-ALI |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxllm1-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxllm1-26dec31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxllm1-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9WBNWKP8C0",
"slug": "kxllm1-26dec31",
"question": "Will the best AI system at the end of 2026 be released by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or another organization?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"artificial-intelligence",
"ai-capability-rankings",
"technology-2026",
"ai-models",
"year-end-assessment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1119181,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}