Will Meta release Llama 5 this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | $9 | $6.8K | C | KXLLAMA5-27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | OpenAI | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Meta releases Llama 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI" sources (1)
- OpenAI venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxllama5-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxllama5-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxllama5-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H9M19LCMC2",
"slug": "kxllama5-27",
"question": "Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"llama-5",
"meta-ai",
"large-language-models",
"ai-release",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6751,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 32,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "OpenAI",
"url": "https://openai.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}