Will Jerome Powell's departure as Fed Governor be announced by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (59D) ]
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 86.0% | — | $7.1K | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…N31 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 83.0% | — | $6.0K | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…N01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 44.0% | $650 | $61K | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…-27 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 35.0% | $10 | $3.1K | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…C01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 30.0% | — | $901 | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…V01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 24.0% | $33 | $2.9K | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…T01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 16.0% | — | $770 | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…P01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 13.0% | $6 | $47K | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…G01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 3.0% | $11 | $257 | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…L01 | ||
| Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal… | 2026-08-01 | 0.3% | — | $716 | A | KXLEAVEPOWEL…JUN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleavepowellgov-26aug01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleavepowellgov-26aug01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxleavepowellgov-26aug01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7L340MPXL8",
"slug": "kxleavepowellgov-26aug01",
"question": "Will Jerome Powell's departure as Fed Governor be announced by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-reserve",
"jerome-powell",
"us-politics",
"central-banking",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 129578,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}