Will any major world leaders leave office in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 99.8% | — | $106K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…HUN | ||
| Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | $39 | $170K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…COL | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 70.0% | $2.3K | $302K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…AUK | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba… | 2027-01-01 | 62.0% | $2.9K | $355K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…CPC | ||
| Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 54.0% | $1 | $5.3K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…MNZ | ||
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 37.0% | $422 | $117K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…ISR | ||
| Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | $3 | $7.6K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…NPM | ||
| Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $776 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…BOL | ||
| Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $4 | $2.7K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…PRE | ||
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $11 | $16K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…UKR | ||
| Will Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $24 | $1.5K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…SER | ||
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $156 | $22K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…MEX | ||
| Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $772 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…AFR | ||
| Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $21 | $1.8K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…GER | ||
| Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $750 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…ITA | ||
| Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $881 | $58K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…RUS | ||
| Will Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo before… | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $115 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…DRC | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $4.3K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…BRA | ||
| Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo… | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $63 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…DRC | ||
| Will Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $50 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…HEC | ||
| Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $2.4K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…SYR | ||
| Will Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $906 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…PMG | ||
| Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $73 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…CUA | ||
| Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $252 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…KOR | ||
| Will Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.8% | $26 | $761 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…PMD | ||
| Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.5% | — | $2.4K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…JAP | ||
| Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.1% | — | $657 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…CAN | ||
| Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.8% | — | $25 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…GUY | ||
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.3% | — | $997 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…TUR | ||
| Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.3% | — | $3.0K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…FRA | ||
| Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.1% | — | $190 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…ARG | ||
| Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $200 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…IND | ||
| Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $1.1K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…PRK | ||
| Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before… | 2027-01-01 | 3.2% | $103 | $21K | B | KXLEADERSOUT…CHI | ||
| Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $172 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…LSA | ||
| Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 1.6% | — | $70 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…ARA | ||
| Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 1.1% | — | $42 | B | KXLEADERSOUT…XKD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
"Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleadersout-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleadersout-27jan01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxleadersout-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y6NB8WH229",
"slug": "kxleadersout-27jan01",
"question": "Will any major world leaders leave office in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"political-transitions",
"leadership-changes",
"2026-departures",
"executive-office",
"global-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1205384,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}