Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 38 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary | 2027-01-01 | 99.8% | — | $106K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…HUN | ||
| Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | 2027-01-01 | 99.6% | — | $540K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…AUK | ||
| Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia | 2027-01-01 | 98.7% | $494 | $186K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…COL | ||
| Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia | 2027-01-01 | 94.0% | — | $17K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…SER | ||
| Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand | 2027-01-01 | 46.0% | $94 | $5.9K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…MNZ | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel | 2027-01-01 | 44.0% | $816 | $187K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ISR | ||
| Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France | 2027-01-01 | 26.0% | — | $10 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…MFR | ||
| Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $14 | $126K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CPC | ||
| Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $5.9K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…NPM | ||
| Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $10 | $3.1K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PRE | ||
| Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $0 | $840 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…HEC | ||
| Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $1.5K | $91K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…RUS | ||
| Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $976 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…AFR | ||
| Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $2.1K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…GER | ||
| Emmanuel Macron leave President of France | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $77 | $7.5K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…FRA | ||
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $421 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…BOL | ||
| Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $917 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PMG | ||
| Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador | 2027-01-01 | 9.3% | — | $99 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CUA | ||
| Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo | 2027-01-01 | 9.1% | — | $107 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…DRC | ||
| Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $509 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…KOR | ||
| Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2027-01-01 | 8.3% | — | $98 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…DRC | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine | 2027-01-01 | 7.1% | $11 | $7.8K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…UKR | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $10 | $3.1K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…BRA | ||
| Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $904 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PMD | ||
| Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $1 | $32 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…GUY | ||
| Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan | 2027-01-01 | 5.8% | $5 | $2.5K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…JAP | ||
| Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $10 | $363 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ITA | ||
| Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…SYR | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $0 | $769 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…TUR | ||
| Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $5 | $5.9K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…MEX | ||
| Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India | 2027-01-01 | 3.9% | $1 | $192 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…IND | ||
| Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea | 2027-01-01 | 3.9% | — | $872 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PRK | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $136 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ARA | ||
| Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada | 2027-01-01 | 2.9% | $1 | $427 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CAN | ||
| Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China | 2027-01-01 | 2.6% | — | $17K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CHI | ||
| Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador | 2027-01-01 | 1.2% | — | $72 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…LSA | ||
| Javier Milei leave President of Argentina | 2027-01-01 | 1.1% | — | $52 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ARG | ||
| Frederik X leave King of Denmark | 2027-01-01 | 1.1% | — | $42 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…XKD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
"Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (18)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- official government websites relevant to <office> venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- office or organization where <person> holds <office> venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENDING | Will Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-28 | 94% |
| YES | Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleadersout-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleadersout-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxleadersout-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y6NB8WH229",
"slug": "kxleadersout-27jan01",
"question": "Which leaders will leave office in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"political-transitions",
"leadership-changes",
"2026-departures",
"executive-office",
"global-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 38,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1324553,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
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},
{
"name": "Fox News",
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{
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},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
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{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
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},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
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},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites relevant to " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
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{
"name": "Politico",
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Reuters",
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},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
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},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
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"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}