Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | $67 | $27K | A | KXLARGECUT-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Fed rate cut over 25 basis points this year stays a long shot Kalshi 4%
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year is priced at just 4%, resolves via the Federal Reserve's own policy record.
- Bitcoin's decline reflects the market aligning with the Kalshi read: no large near-term cut is priced, keeping monetary conditions tight for risk assets.
- The Clarity Act failure removes a potential regulatory tailwind for crypto just as the Fed hike adds a macro headwind.
- The Polymarket contract on any 2026 Fed hike at 95% and this Kalshi cut contract at 4% are mutually consistent: the policy path is firmly tighter, not looser.
- Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts only 3% on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points occurring at any point in 2026, resolving via Federal Reserve.
- Warsh moving to hike is directly at odds with Trump's cut demands; the market assigns near-zero probability to the president's preferred path.
- Polymarket (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) simultaneously prices a 90% chance of a hike, making the policy direction a strong market consensus.
- The 3% cut-greater-than-25bp contract and the 90% hike contract are directionally consistent and not contradictory.
- Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi prices a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 at just 4%, resolving via Federal Reserve official decision.
- With Warsh widely expected to hike Wednesday, the Kalshi contract is consistent with the news, a large cut this year is a near-complete long shot.
- Polymarket's 2026 rate hike contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 93% and this 4% cut contract point in the same direction: the market has fully priced the hike and ruled out a pivot.
- Resolution requires Federal Reserve to announce a single cut exceeding 25 bps at any 2026 meeting, a bar that looks very high given Wednesday's expected move.
- Market puts long odds against a large Fed cut this year Kalshi 3%
- The Kalshi contract puts only 3% odds on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points in 2026, per Federal Reserve resolution.
- With hike calls intensifying across Wall Street, the near-zero cut probability is fully consistent with the hawkish macro backdrop described by economists.
- The companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) prices the upper bound at 3.75-4.0%, making a large cut this year a near-statistical impossibility under current pricing.
- Resolution requires an official Federal Reserve rate decision exceeding 25bp to the downside in 2026; no meeting currently priced to deliver that.
- Odds of outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi puts just 5% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026, resolved via Federal Reserve decisions.
- Warsh's hawkish framing at Jackson Hole, avoiding any easing signal, is fully consistent with this near-zero cut probability.
- The Kalshi contract pricing aligns with a market consensus that the next move is more likely a hike than a large cut.
- Cross-referencing the 68% Polymarket hike probability against this 5% large-cut probability reveals a strongly asymmetric tightening bias in prediction markets.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"rate-cuts",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}