Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
> 25	2027-01-01	10.4%		$27	$31K		A	`KXLARGECUT-26`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Federal Reserve	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "rate-cuts",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 31456,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →