Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2027-01-01 | 8.9% | $4 | $44K | A | KXLARGECUT-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Odds on a large Fed rate cut this year stay near long-shot Kalshi 9%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices only a 9% chance the Fed delivers a rate cut greater than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- Three dissenters voting for a hike, not a cut, aligns with the market's near-dismissal of an outsized easing move this year.
- The Polymarket contract on a Fed rate decision between June and September sits at 54%, suggesting some residual possibility of action but not a large cut.
- Resolution is via Federal Reserve official policy announcements; a move greater than 25 basis points would require two consecutive 25bp cuts or one 50bp cut.
- Odds of an outsized Fed cut this year stay near the floor Kalshi 6%
- Kalshi prices only 6% on a Fed rate cut exceeding 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- With three FOMC members voting for a hike and Q2 GDP at a sluggish 1.5%, the data mix leaves the Fed on hold rather than pivoting to easier policy.
- Stubborn inflation cited by the Fed as the reason for its pause makes a large cut this year a remote scenario, consistent with the 6% Kalshi price.
- Kalshi resolves this via Federal Reserve official communications; any cut at the September or November meeting would need to exceed 25bp to trigger a YES.
- Odds on a large Fed cut this year remain a long shot Kalshi 8%
- Kalshi prices only 8% on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate cut larger than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- Goldman Sachs commentary on rising consumer prices is consistent with the Kalshi contract staying near single digits on outsized cuts.
- With the July meeting expected to hold and September flagged as a potential hike, the 8% figure reflects markets pricing out meaningful easing entirely.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; any cut of 50 basis points or more at any 2026 meeting would trigger settlement.
- Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay deep in long-shot territory Kalshi 9%
- The Kalshi contract prices only 9% on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points this year.
- Despite job-loss headlines fueling cut speculation, the market gives barely one-in-ten odds on a larger-than-standard move.
- The rate-ladder consensus placing the Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75% is consistent with at most one standard cut, not an aggressive easing cycle.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; a single 25bps cut would not trigger this contract.
- Odds of jumbo Fed cut this year remain a long shot Kalshi 7%
- Kalshi puts only 7% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- The oil shock narrative, Brent near 92 dollars, WTI past 84, supports the Fed hold consensus and is consistent with this near-zero jumbo-cut probability.
- The Kalshi rate ladder implies the upper bound most likely settling in the 3.25-3.50% range, meaning any cut would be modest, not aggressive.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions; a single cut of 50 basis points or more at any 2026 meeting would resolve yes.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"rate-cuts",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 43599,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}