Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | $67 | $27K | A | KXLARGECUT-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Odds on outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 1%
- Kalshi prices only 1% odds on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026.
- New York Fed President John Williams called inflation 'absolutely too high,' yet the Kalshi contract already sits at near-zero, market is fully aligned with the hawkish rhetoric.
- Companion context: multiple officials have flagged rate-hike consideration after the October blowout payrolls print of 165,000 jobs versus a 59,000 consensus.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; any cut above 25bp in 2026 would be an extraordinary policy reversal from current stance.
- Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay near the floor Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts only 3% on the Federal Reserve executing a rate cut larger than 25 basis points in 2026.
- The strong jobs print is fully consistent with this near-zero pricing; the market sees no case for an outsized dovish move.
- Kalshi ladder for the funds rate upper bound shows 78% above 4.00%, cross-confirming that easing bets are essentially priced out.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve policy decision; a surprise economic deterioration before year-end would be required to move this contract materially.
- Rate cut above 25bp this year stays a long shot Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi prices only 3% on the Fed delivering a cut larger than 25 basis points in 2026.
- AP reports the Fed is poised to skip a hike, consistent with the hold, but a jumbo cut remains near-impossible per the market.
- With inflation at 3.7% and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling possible future hikes, easing is priced as an extreme tail.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision data; any single cut above 25bp in remaining 2026 meetings triggers YES.
- Fed rate cut above 25 basis points this year stays near zero odds Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi prices a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 at just 3%, a near-zero probability reflecting the hold decision.
- The Fed held rates steady citing elevated inflation; the Kalshi contract is consistent with this posture, as a large cut this year is now almost entirely ruled out by the market.
- NPR reporting notes investors widely expect a rate hike at December's meeting, which would make any cut in 2026 mathematically impossible, consistent with the 3% pricing.
- Kalshi resolves via Federal Reserve official policy announcement; the December meeting is the only remaining opportunity for 2026 resolution.
- Odds of a large Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 3%
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year sits at just 3%.
- The Fed's hold with hawkish dissenters is fully consistent with near-zero probability of a large cut, the market is not pricing any easing pivot.
- With inflation running above 3.7% and GDP at 3.4%, the macro backdrop gives the market little reason to revise this probability upward.
- Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's own policy announcements; the remaining 2026 meeting is December, making this contract very close to expiry.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"rate-cuts",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}