Will any candidate in the Los Angeles Mayor Primary outperform their polling averages? [ resolves 2026-06-09 (6D) ]

Will Adam Miller outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Karen Bass outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling…	2026-06-09	90.0%	$2.3K	$2.4K	C	`KXLAMAYOROUT…BAS`
Will Nithya Raman outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor…	2026-06-09	86.0%	$2.2K	$2.7K	C	`KXLAMAYOROUT…RAM`
Will Spencer Pratt outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor…	2026-06-09	81.0%	$1.7K	$1.7K	C	`KXLAMAYOROUT…PRA`
Will Adam Miller outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor…	2026-06-09	63.0%	$9	$9	C	`KXLAMAYOROUT…MIL`
Will Rae Huang outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling…	2026-06-09	13.0%	$4	$4	C	`KXLAMAYOROUT…HUA`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	uncommitted	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If Karen Bass's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No. The Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.

platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6FYKGGKDQ4",
  "slug": "kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02",
  "question": "Will any candidate in the Los Angeles Mayor Primary outperform their polling averages?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "los-angeles-mayor",
    "primary-election",
    "polling-accuracy",
    "2027",
    "electoral-performance"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6814,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →