Will a candidate in the Los Angeles Mayor Primary outperform the polls? [ resolved 2026-06-27 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 2026-06-27 | 100.0% | — | $7.5K | C | KXLAMAYOROUT…BAS | ||
| Spencer Pratt | 2026-06-27 | 100.0% | — | $8.1K | C | KXLAMAYOROUT…PRA | ||
| Nithya Raman | 2026-06-27 | 100.0% | — | $4.3K | C | KXLAMAYOROUT…RAM | ||
| Adam Miller | 2026-06-27 | 0.0% | — | $3 | C | KXLAMAYOROUT…MIL | ||
| Rae Huang | 2026-06-27 | 0.0% | — | $1 | C | KXLAMAYOROUT…HUA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Karen Bass's realized result in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.
The Los Angeles Mayor primary polling average are: Karen Bass 27.7%, Spencer Pratt 22.1%, Nithya Raman 21.9%, Adam Miller 6.5%, Rae Huang 6.5%.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (5)
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant <geography>; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- The Source Agencies are venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
- the official religious authority (e venue-listed
- in hierarchical order venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Rae Huang outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Adam Miller outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 0% |
| YES | Will Spencer Pratt outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 100% |
| YES | Will Karen Bass outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 100% |
| YES | Will Nithya Raman outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 Los Angeles Mayor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6FYKGGKDQ4",
"slug": "kxlamayoroutperform-26jun02",
"question": "Will a candidate in the Los Angeles Mayor Primary outperform the polls?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"los-angeles-mayor",
"primary-election",
"polling-accuracy",
"2027",
"electoral-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19872,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant ; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant ; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://constitutionalcourt.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official religious authority (e",
"url": "http://leader.ir",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}