Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by the specified date? [ resolves 2027-06-02 (364D) ]
Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?
kalshi: [A] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles… | 2027-06-02 | 79.0% | $258K | $510K | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…PRA | ||
| Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles… | 2027-06-02 | 23.0% | $40K | $73K | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…BAS | ||
| Will Nithya Raman and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral… | 2027-06-02 | 2.0% | — | $13 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUN | ||
| Will Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | $914 | $2.4K | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…PRA | ||
| Will Nithya Raman and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…MIL | ||
| Will Karen Bass and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…MIL | ||
| Will Karen Bass and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUA | ||
| Will Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…MIL | ||
| Will Spencer Pratt and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | — | $28 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUA | ||
| Will Adam Miller and Rae Huang be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral… | 2027-06-02 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXLAMAYORMAT…HUA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Nithya Raman and Karen Bass advance in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Nithya Raman (USELECTION), Karen Bass (USELECTION). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlamayormatchup-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlamayormatchup-26jun.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlamayormatchup-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5D13MHJ4R8",
"slug": "kxlamayormatchup-26jun",
"question": "Will there be a Los Angeles mayoral election by the specified date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"los-angeles-mayor",
"2027-election",
"primary-matchup",
"california-politics",
"nominee-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 586155,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}