Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? [ resolves 2027-10-27 (449D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 18 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Gadi Eizenkot	2027-10-27	51.0%	$6	$6.2K	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…EIZ`
Benjamin Netanyahu	2027-10-27	33.0%	$82	$15K	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…NET`
Naftali Bennett	2027-10-27	8.0%	—	$1.1K	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…BEN`
Avigdor Lieberman	2027-10-27	6.0%	$6	$222	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…LIE`
Benny Gantz	2027-10-27	5.0%	—	$5	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…GAN`
Yossi Cohen	2027-10-27	5.0%	—	$17	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…COH`
Gideon Sa'ar	2027-10-27	4.0%	—	$0	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…SAA`
Yuli Edelstein	2027-10-27	4.0%	—	$7	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…EDE`
Yair Lapid	2027-10-27	1.0%	—	$11	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…LAP`
Itamar Ben Gvir	2027-10-27	1.0%	—	$4	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…GVI`
Ayelet Shaked	2027-10-27	1.0%	—	$2	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…SHA`
Yariv Levin	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…LEV`
Yair Golan	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…GOL`
Israel Katz	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…KAT`
Amir Ohana	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…OHA`
Moshe Feiglin	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…FEI`
Yoaz Hendel	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…HEN`
Nir Barkat	2027-10-27	0.0%	—	—	C	`KXISRAELPM-2…BAR`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	parliament or legislature of <country>	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 18 markets · share this text

If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "parliament or legislature of <country>"

sources (13)

parliament or legislature of <country> venue-listed official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country> venue-listed office of the head of state of <country> venue-listed major national news outlets of <country> venue-listed Financial Times venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed official government websites of <country> venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The Guardian venue-listed BBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00 volume-spike
Eizenkot PM odds draw fresh money at 16% 16% · $79K 24h
- Kalshi prices Gadi Eizenkot becoming PM following the 2026 Israeli election at 16%, a long-shot alternative.
- 44% of all-time volume arrived in the past 24h, consistent with the broader Israeli election event spike.
- Eizenkot contract activity tracks alongside Netanyahu and broader Israel election flow, attention is sweeping the full candidate set.
- Resolves on Eizenkot being named PM as a direct result of the 2026 Israeli election.
2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00 volume-spike
Netanyahu PM via 2026 election stays a long shot at 26% 26% · $659K 24h
- Kalshi prices Netanyahu winning PM specifically via the 2026 Israeli election at 26%, a clear underdog read.
- 24h volume of $659K is 54% of all-time, the majority of this contract's lifetime activity hit in one session.
- Surge mirrors the Polymarket Netanyahu spike, suggesting coordinated fresh attention across venues on the same underlying event.
- Resolves on Netanyahu being named PM as a direct result of the 2026 election outcome.
2026-10-28T14:50:28+00:00 volume-spike
Eizenkot PM bid draws fresh money at long odds 17% · $90K 24h
- Kalshi prices Gadi Eizenkot at 17% for Prime Minister, a long-shot read on a credible opposition figure.
- 47% of all-time contract volume hit in 24 hours, consistent with Israeli election news driving attention across the board.
- At 17%, the market assigns meaningful but minority odds, Eizenkot is a named alternative, not a fringe bet.
- Resolves on post-election PM confirmation.
2026-10-28T07:50:03+00:00 volume-spike
Eizenkot PM odds hold at 15% as fresh bets pile in on Kalshi 15% · $105K 24h
- 15% pricing marks Eizenkot as a long-shot challenger for PM following 2026 elections.
- Kalshi recorded $105K in 24h, 63% of all-time volume, matching the Netanyahu contract's surge pattern.
- Coordinated volume across Israeli leadership contracts suggests event-driven repositioning on election news.
- Resolves if Eizenkot forms or leads the next Israeli government post-2026 vote.
2026-10-28T07:50:03+00:00 volume-spike
Kalshi traders back Netanyahu at 24% in the 2026 election race 24% · $693K 24h
- 24% pricing puts Netanyahu as a clear underdog in the formal 2026 election contract.
- Kalshi saw $692K in 24h, 64% of all-time volume, a near-full book turnover.
- Divergence from Polymarket's 50% suggests contract-scope differences driving split pricing.
- Resolves on Netanyahu specifically winning PM role via 2026 Israeli legislative election.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxisraelpm-26oct27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5",
  "slug": "kxisraelpm-26oct27",
  "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "israeli-politics",
    "prime-minister",
    "2026-election",
    "government-formation",
    "coalition-politics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 18,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 22785,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 70,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "parliament or legislature of ",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "parliament or legislature of ",
      "url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official government gazette or equivalent official publication of ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "office of the head of state of ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "major national news outlets of ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Financial Times",
      "url": "https://ft.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official government websites of ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Guardian",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →