Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? [ resolves 2027-10-27 (461D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 2027-10-27 | 46.0% | $135 | $4.6K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…EIZ | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2027-10-27 | 38.0% | $831 | $15K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…NET | ||
| Naftali Bennett | 2027-10-27 | 12.0% | — | $1.6K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…BEN | ||
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2027-10-27 | 8.0% | — | $244 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…LIE | ||
| Benny Gantz | 2027-10-27 | 5.0% | — | $5 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…GAN | ||
| Yossi Cohen | 2027-10-27 | 5.0% | — | $17 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…COH | ||
| Gideon Sa'ar | 2027-10-27 | 4.0% | — | $0 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…SAA | ||
| Yuli Edelstein | 2027-10-27 | 4.0% | — | $7 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…EDE | ||
| Yair Lapid | 2027-10-27 | 1.0% | — | $11 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…LAP | ||
| Yariv Levin | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…LEV | ||
| Yair Golan | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…GOL | ||
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…GVI | ||
| Israel Katz | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…KAT | ||
| Ayelet Shaked | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…SHA | ||
| Amir Ohana | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…OHA | ||
| Moshe Feiglin | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…FEI | ||
| Yoaz Hendel | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…HEN | ||
| Nir Barkat | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…BAR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | parliament or legislature of <country> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).
If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "parliament or legislature of <country>" sources (13)
- parliament or legislature of <country> venue-listed
- official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country> venue-listed
- office of the head of state of <country> venue-listed
- major national news outlets of <country> venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- official government websites of <country> venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxisraelpm-26oct27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5",
"slug": "kxisraelpm-26oct27",
"question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"israeli-politics",
"prime-minister",
"2026-election",
"government-formation",
"coalition-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21770,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "parliament or legislature of " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "parliament or legislature of " ,
"url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government gazette or equivalent official publication of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "office of the head of state of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "major national news outlets of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://ft.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}