Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The embassy/consulate must be opened or have a specific date on which it will be opened to be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. It also includes an embassy being re-opened after suspending operations.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times" sources (1)
The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- US reopening Iran embassy stays close to zero probability Kalshi 2%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices the U.S. reopening its embassy in Iran at just 2%.
- Trading volume on this contract rose 14,724% day over day, a sharp surge consistent with the news that U.S. personnel are being drawn down, not redeployed, in the region.
- Embassy staff reductions and heightened alert are the opposite of normalization, making the 2% pricing directionally aligned with the news even as volume spikes on attention.
- Resolves via The New York Times as the named source; formal reopening would require a diplomatic breakthrough well beyond current conditions.
- US reopening its embassy in Iran stays a long shot Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts only 3% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, resolved via The New York Times, reflecting deep skepticism about diplomatic normalization.
- High-level talks in Geneva represent a notable step, but the Kalshi pricing treats a formal diplomatic reopening as far beyond what early-stage ceasefire talks imply.
- A companion Kalshi contract on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader sits at 4%, similarly reflecting markets pricing no regime-change or normalization path.
- The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December sits at 14% on Polymarket, suggesting markets see ongoing Iran tensions as the base case through year-end.
- US embassy reopening in Iran stays a very long shot Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi prices only 4% on the United States reopening its embassy in Iran, with volume up 7,372% day over day -- a massive surge in trading activity signaling fresh attention.
- High-level Switzerland talks are drawing market interest, but the 4% price shows participants view full diplomatic normalization as extremely unlikely in the current conflict context.
- The Kalshi contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at 13% on Polymarket, implying a hierarchy: enrichment deal possible but embassy reopening seen as a far more distant step.
- Resolution source is The New York Times; the contract likely requires a formal, publicly announced US decision to reopen or reestablish an embassy in Tehran.
- US embassy reopening in Iran stays a long shot at 2 percent Kalshi 2%
- Kalshi prices the US reopening its embassy in Iran at 2%, consistent with near-complete market skepticism about a diplomatic breakthrough.
- Iran readying retaliatory posture and Trump's threat to strike Tehran are fully consistent with this near-zero probability; market and news are aligned.
- A separate Kalshi contract on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader sits at 4%, also negligible, framing the entire Iran diplomatic spectrum as a long shot.
- Kalshi resolves via the New York Times; the low base rate means even a credible preliminary deal announcement would likely produce sharp repricing from a very low starting point.
- US reopening its embassy in Iran stays a long shot at 4 percent Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi puts only 4% odds on the United States reopening its embassy in Iran, a near-remote outcome despite active Qatar mediation.
- Qatar's two-page compromise proposal and U.S.-Iran trust-building talks show diplomatic movement, but the 4% price indicates markets see normalization as far beyond current negotiating distance.
- Officials describe talks as stuck on sequencing, consistent with the market's deeply skeptical read on full diplomatic restoration.
- Reopening an embassy represents a much higher bar than a nuclear or Hormuz agreement; companion markets on a US-Iran deal and Hormuz normalization would likely need to resolve first.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxiranembassy-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxiranembassy-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxiranembassy-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
"slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
"question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-iran-relations",
"diplomatic-reopening",
"embassy-operations",
"middle-east-politics",
"2026-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12986,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}