Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The embassy/consulate must be opened or have a specific date on which it will be opened to be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. It also includes an embassy being re-opened after suspending operations.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times" sources (1)
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
- US embassy reopening in Iran stays a heavy long shot at 5% Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi prices only 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, a strong diplomatic normalization marker that the market firmly rejects.
- Iran's rejection of the Iraqi-brokered ceasefire proposal is fully consistent with the near-zero embassy probability; the market sees no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.
- Polymarket (CM-EVT-WD982793G1) prices a 29% chance the US invades Iran outright before 2027, this higher probability on escalation versus the 5% on normalization illustrates the market's asymmetric war-scenario lean.
- Kalshi resolves via The New York Times; embassy reopening is a lagging diplomatic indicator that requires ceasefire, deal, and formal restoration of relations, all currently near zero probability.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxiranembassy-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxiranembassy-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxiranembassy-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
"slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
"question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-iran-relations",
"diplomatic-reopening",
"embassy-operations",
"middle-east-politics",
"2026-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10540,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}